Author: Ananda Roy, SVP Thought Leadership Europe, Circana
Circana’s data shows that moderation among consumers, especially Gen Z, is no longer episodic; it is a mindset. As functional, no/low drinks gain momentum and the boundaries of the drinks industry are redrawn, how can wine remain relevant?
For a long time, low-no was the alcohol industry’s easiest category to brush aside as a challenge (such as Dry January), a niche alternative for the health-conscious or a fallback option for people who couldn’t drink, rather than a deliberate choice for people who simply didn’t want to. But the data tells a very different story – one that is not easily dismissed.
Across the six largest European consumer packaged goods (CPG) markets that Circana studies (the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, or “the EU6”), total alcoholic beverage sales are in decline, with volume down 2.2% year on year. Wine and Champagne have softened further, declining by just over 3% in volume. At the same time, low and no alcohol beverages are growing at 6.6% in volume and nearly 10% in value.
To be clear, low and no still accounts for only around 1% of total beverage sales (€2 billion), compared to alcohol’s value share of 39% (€70 billion). But it is the fastest-growing segment across the entire drinks universe.
This trend is not one of dramatic overnight displacement; it is something quieter and, arguably, more important: the steady redistribution of occasions. And that is where wine should be paying close attention.
When moderation becomes a mindset
One of the most consistent signals Circana sees in the data is that moderation is no longer episodic. In recent consumer research, 43% of shoppers say they have stopped buying alcohol, are buying less, or have postponed purchases. Among 25- to 35-year-olds, that rises to 50%. Health is the leading reason for cutting back, cited by around a third of consumers who are drinking less. Economic pressures and lifestyle changes also feature prominently. But what stands out is the tone of the shift.
For younger consumers in particular, low- and no-alcohol is not framed as restriction; it is framed as a choice. It is about better sleep, clearer mornings, improved focus and overall wellbeing. It is about being able to socialise without the debilitating after-effects.
Gen Z, in particular, does not appear to see moderation as a temporary life stage before returning to heavier drinking. It is simply normal. That challenges a long-standing industry assumption that younger cohorts will grow into higher alcohol consumption as their incomes rise and their lifestyles evolve.
For wine, which has traditionally depended on generational recruitment and the idea of a lifecycle progression towards fuller, more frequent consumption, that matters.
@adobe stock
Occasions over abstinence
Another nuance is worth underlining: the majority of low and no consumers are not abstainers.
When behaviour is segmented more closely, four broad groups emerge. There are “substitutes”, who replace alcohol in certain situations. There are “blenders”, who alternate between alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks depending on the occasion. There are “trialers”, who experiment occasionally, and there is a smaller group of “abstainers”. The largest of these groups is substitutes.
Wine is not being abandoned altogether; it is simply being swapped out in certain moments. A midweek dinner, a work lunch, a social gathering or a training period before a sports event, the usual weekday glass can quietly become something alcohol-free instead. When even some of those occasions begin to shift, the impact builds over time. The real challenge is not widespread abstinence; it is small, regular moments of partial substitution.
Premium without the alcohol
There’s a common assumption that low and no is simply a trade-down choice; something consumers reach for when budgets are tight. But the numbers tell a different story. Across the EU6 markets, low and no drinks are typically priced above most soft drinks, juices and bottled water. They are not positioned as cheap substitutes; they are positioned as grown-up alternatives.
And the innovation behind them is getting more serious by the year. We are seeing alcohol-free sparkling wines aged on lees, double-fermented non-alcoholic wines built for texture rather than sweetness, thoughtful grape sourcing and production methods that lean on the same language wine has always used: structure, mouthfeel, balance, etc.
This is not about cutting corners. Low and no is moving upmarket and doing so with increasing confidence.
Among younger consumers especially, there is a willingness to pay for quality and craftsmanship, even in the absence of alcohol. Luxury is shifting from indulgence to intentionality. The idea that premium must equal higher ABV is quietly being dismantled.
Wine has always excelled at storytelling around provenance and production. In many ways, the emerging low and no segment is learning quickly from that playbook.
@Mother Root
The competitive set is expanding
Perhaps most striking is that the biggest shift is not happening within alcohol categories at all. Consumers are no longer starting with a choice between wine, beer or spirits. They are starting with a different question entirely: what do I want from this drink? Do I want relaxation at the end of the day, a mood lift, a boost of energy, support for digestion, or simply something that lets me feel included socially without overdoing it?
The decision is increasingly about the outcome rather than the category label. And that subtle change is reshaping the competitive landscape for every drink on the shelf.
Functional drinks are gaining real momentum across several markets. This includes beverages infused with botanicals, adaptogens and wellness-led ingredients, as well as products that promise relaxation, focus, mood support or digestive benefits. Notably, some of these brands openly state their purpose. They are not trying to recreate intoxication; they’re trying to recreate the reason people drink in the first place: to unwind, to connect or to mark a moment.
This is where things get interesting for the wider drinks industry. Low and no now sits within a much broader convergence space, where alcoholic drinks, premium soft drinks and functional beverages are all competing for the same occasions.
For wine, that widens the competitive lens considerably. The rival is no longer just beer, spirits or Champagne. It might be a botanical aperitif designed for slow sipping, a sparkling functional drink promising mood enhancement, a premium adult soft drink poured into stemware and finished with a sprig of rosemary.
In this environment, alcohol content is not what sets drinks apart anymore. What matters is how well they fit the moment.
Retail is not waiting
Retailers have been quick to respond. Dedicated low and no sections are expanding in leading European supermarkets. Online searches for alcohol-free options have risen sharply in recent years, while private label ranges are becoming more sophisticated, in some cases narrowing the price gap with national brands.
In the United Kingdom, for example, the low and no market has already doubled between 2020 and 2026, and it is forecast to triple again by 2028. Globally, the category is expected to add around $4 billion in value over the next few years. That is real momentum.
Retailers are responding accordingly with more shelf space, more thoughtful curation, clearer signposting and investment in consumer education around moderation. What once sat on a small special interest shelf is steadily becoming part of the mainstream shopping flow.
For wine brands, that shift matters. Where products sit – physically in-store and digitally online – shapes what shoppers discover, compare and ultimately put in their baskets. When low and no becomes easier to find and to understand, it naturally becomes easier to choose.
The trade is evolving, too
It is fair to say that parts of the wine trade were initially sceptical about low and no. Long supply chains, strong tradition and quality concerns made the category feel peripheral. Importers and distributors, understandably, prioritised established segments. But the tone is changing.
Specialist importers focused on low and no are emerging. Sommeliers are experimenting with alcohol-free pairings. On-trade operators are recognising that offering credible alternatives can increase total spend per table rather than cannibalise it.
Importantly, ignoring low and no is increasingly seen as a commercial risk. If one guest in a group opts for alcohol-free, and the venue cannot offer something compelling, that affects the overall experience.
The question is no longer whether low and no deserves space; it is how best to integrate those options.
@Kylie Minogue Wines
Where does wine go from here?
Low- and no-alcohol is unlikely to replace traditional wine in the most deeply ritualised or celebratory moments any time soon. A fine Burgundy opened at a milestone birthday or the pop of a Champagne cork at a wedding still carries enormous cultural weight. Those moments are not easily substituted. But wine does not live on milestone occasions alone. The category depends on frequency, on midweek dinners, relaxed catch-ups with friends, and everyday glasses that quietly build habit and loyalty over time.
If even a portion of those regular, incremental occasions begin to shift towards alcohol-free alternatives, the impact will not be dramatic overnight. It will build gradually but meaningfully in the background.
The strategic question, then, is not whether low and no will overtake wine. It is how wine participates in a moderating world.
Some producers will innovate directly by exploring alcohol-free or reduced-alcohol formats that meet evolving definitions and consumer expectations. Others may focus on reinforcing wine’s place within moderation: smaller serves, clearer communication around balance, or more deliberate positioning around craftsmanship and food pairing.
What seems clear from the data is that moderation is not a fad.
Low and no may account for only 1% of beverage sales today. But it is the only part of the alcohol-adjacent market delivering consistent growth in an otherwise declining category.
The boundaries of the drinks industry are being redrawn. Wine can choose to view low and no as an irritant at the edge of the aisle. Or it can treat it as a signal that consumer expectations around health, occasion and premium experience are evolving.
In a moderating world, relevance will not be defined simply by alcohol content. It will be defined by how well brands understand why consumers choose to drink at all – and that is a conversation the wine industry is uniquely well placed to lead.
About Ananda Roy
Ananda Roy engages executive leaders at the world’s largest consumer goods brands and retailers on the strategic drivers of category growth. With a strong commercial mindset, he leverages Circana’s extensive data and analytics capabilities and a team of subject-matter experts to accelerate client growth.
Roy is the author of several Circana European CPG thought leadership reports, including Europe’s Innovation Pacesetters, Sustainability Matters: No Plan B, Private Labels: Hiding in Plain Sight, and Demand Signals, Circana’s bi-annual consumer goods category review.
A recognized industry thought leader, Roy is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and events and has delivered opening keynote addresses at several global food and beverage conferences. His perspective is often featured on BBC TV and Radio, SKY and CNBC networks, and in The Financial Times of London, Le Figaro, El Pais, Bloomberg, Reuters, Marketing Week, and leading trade media outlets such as The Grocer and ESM.
Before joining Circana in 2021, Roy held various strategy development and commercial leadership positions in FTSE-25 CPG firms and management consulting and research firms, in addition to early-career roles at two global advertising networks.
Roy has an MBA from the University of Warwick and executive qualifications in Leadership, Innovation, and Advanced Analytics from the Harvard Business School, London Business School, and Cambridge University.
