Author: Sharon Nagel
Carbon pricing is becoming an increasingly visible component of maritime freight costs. Since 2024, the EU has progressively brought shipping into its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), reaching full coverage in 2026. At the same time, FuelEU Maritime is pushing operators towards lower-carbon energy. What do these measures mean for the cost of shipping bulk wine to and from the EU, and could they strengthen the case for bulk transport?
The ETS is the EU’s main tool for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. The phase-in reaches full coverage for emissions generated in 2026: shipping companies must surrender allowances for 100% of in-scope emissions, compared with 70% of 2025 emissions and 40% of those generated in 2024. Also, the system’s coverage has broadened this year to include methane and nitrous oxide alongside CO2.
Under the scheme, voyages between two EU ports are covered at 100%, while those between an EU and a non-EU port are covered at 50%. The ETS also applies to 100% of emissions at an EU berth. Regulated entities are required to hand back one allowance for every tonne of CO2-equivalent emitted in the previous year. The EU limits the total number of allowances in circulation and companies buy them on a carbon market.
FuelEU Maritime complements the ETS by requiring a progressive reduction in the greenhouse-gas intensity of the energy used on board ships, encouraging the uptake of renewable and low-carbon fuels. Since 1 January 2025, a 2% reduction requirement for greenhouse-gas intensity has been enforced with the target rising to 6% from 2030 and 80% by 2050. Alongside these regulations, ETS2, which prices fuels used in road transportation among other sectors, is scheduled to start in 2028 and is designed to promote low-emissions mobility.
Passing costs on to customers
All of these measures now translate to direct carbon costs for shipping companies, with ETS and FuelEU Maritime costs being combined by some carriers into a single emissions surcharge. The level of those surcharges varies by carrier, trade lane, vessel, emissions performance and the market price of EU allowances, but carriers are increasingly passing on these compliance costs to their customers.
At the end of last year, CMA CGM anticipated that its Energy Transition Surcharge, covering EU ETS and FuelEU regulations impacts, would increase by approximately 43%, but could be further influenced by potential fluctuations in CO2 prices. In its January newsletter, Paris-based freight data and marketplace platform Upply pointed to an average surcharge of $170 for the transportation of a 40’ dry container from Asia to Northern Europe during the first quarter, and $250 for a 40’ reefer.
“Carbon-related costs are becoming another consideration alongside service, transit time, reliability and overall freight cost”, confirms Carolin Haas, global head of the GoGreen Programme at Hillebrand Gori. The company leverages sustainability solutions such as GoGreen Plus so that businesses can directly reduce the carbon emissions of their shipments using alternative and renewable fuels.
Although the 2028 introduction of ETS2 could potentially influence the cost of inland distribution and the relative economics of different transport options, promoting modal shifts, Haas believes carbon pricing is “likely to remain one part of a wider logistics decision”.
The need for practicality and proportionality
The onus of direct monitoring and compliance obligations falls primarily on ocean carriers and vessel operators, rather than on wine producers and importers, but access to reliable emissions data can help businesses assess their exposure to carbon-related costs, compare transport options and identify opportunities to reduce their supply-chain emissions.
However, as Laura Gelezuinas, policy director at the International Wine Federation FIVS, stresses, “The wine sector is already exposed to carbon pricing through several parts of its supply chain, including glass production and maritime transport. So, the question isn’t whether these environmental costs exist, but whether new reporting and verification requirements are proportionate and practical for businesses, particularly SMEs…”
Bulk as an important option
Another question is whether these regulatory requirements will further promote bulk shipments as an effective lever for decarbonisation. “Whatever increases the cost of CO2 emissions will favour trading in bulk because it is a much more efficient way of transporting wine, not just in terms of cost-efficiency but also from an environmental viewpoint”, highlights independent wine market analyst and consultant Rafael del Rey, founder of Del Rey Analysts of Wine Markets. Haas agrees that “as businesses place greater focus on emissions and resource efficiency, bulk solutions are likely to remain an important option”, though “their suitability will continue to depend on the trade lane, volume, product requirements and destination infrastructure”.
The choice of container may also factor into the equation. Haas stresses that there is no single universal value for emissions by different bulk transport solutions such as flexitanks, ISO tanks or reefers: “Factors such as payload, equipment weight, transport distance, vessel efficiency, asset utilisation, repositioning requirements and temperature-control needs all influence the carbon footprint of a shipment”. Nevertheless, she says that “with transport distance being a key determinant, our studies have shown that flexitanks can offer a lower climate impact than ISO tanks, particularly on longer transport routes, largely due to their lower equipment weight”.
External disruptions
Ultimately, logistics decisions are driven by a combination of factors, ranging from production location to consumer demand, trade conditions and freight economics, and Haas has not seen any “clear evidence that ETS alone is fundamentally reshaping global wine trade flows”. The picture is undoubtedly clouded by current geopolitical disruptions alongside network congestion but also weather-related challenges, all of which add complexity and cost pressure to global supply chains.
One example is the impact of drought conditions on key waterways such as the Panama Canal, where reduced transit capacity and restrictions on vessel movements can increase waiting times and costs, adding another layer of uncertainty to global supply chains.
Similarly, the Paso Los Libertadores/Cristo Redentor border crossing between Mendoza and Chile, currently closed due to adverse weather in the high mountain area, periodically affects trucking movements between Chile and Argentina.
Part of the industry’s agenda
It is also important to frame carbon-pricing mechanisms within the broader sustainability picture. Reporting on emissions is a key element of the Sustainable Winegrowing New Zealand programme, for instance. “Through SWNZ, we know that transport emissions account for almost 30% of our industry total emissions footprint”, highlights Dr Edwin Massey, general manager Sustainability at New Zealand Winegrowers. “One of the New Zealand wine industry’s key short-term objectives is to work with freight operators to decarbonise transport”. The industry aims to be net zero by 2050, when the share of wine bottled in market is anticipated to reach 60% compared with a baseline figure of 40%.
“Working to make improvements across the entire supply chain will be crucial to meeting the industry’s 2050 goal”, says Massey, who notes that “in the current trading environment, governments and retailers in our key export markets are doing more diligence on the emissions footprint of their imports. Consumer expectation has grown that premium wine must be produced sustainably and that this claim be supported by robust and verifiable evidence”.
In such a complex and moving operating environment, Haas recommends businesses approach emissions-related changes and costs proactively: “Understand your emissions exposure, engage logistics partners early, assess lower-emission transport options and incorporate sustainability considerations into long-term supply chain planning. Partnering early with logistics providers can help businesses identify practical emissions-reduction opportunities and prepare for evolving regulatory requirements while maintaining supply chain resilience”, she concludes.
Sales remain heavily concentrated in Scandinavia as well as Germany and Great Britain. One interesting development is Spain, where bag-in-box exports are growing. This could indicate a gradual shift away from straight bulk wine towards higher value packaging. More generally, prices of boxed wines are relatively resilient, declining by just 1.5% this year to €1.95 a litre.
In recent years, average prices have consistently outperformed those for bulk wine. It has always seemed somewhat paradoxical that Spain, the world’s largest bulk wine exporter, was not exporting more wine in bag-in-box format, given the additional value it can generate.
In the first quarter of 2026, Italy was the main driver behind the global decline in bag-in-box exports, with volumes down 16%, while Spain – now the world’s leading exporter of boxed wines by volume – and South Africa both recorded growth.
