Author: IWSR
The Northern Hemisphere is harvesting an exceptionally early crop but heat, drought and compressed picking windows have made production unusually challenging to predict – leaving the bulk wine market reluctant to make the first move.
It’s an extraordinary irony that, in a year when vineyards across the Northern Hemisphere are experiencing one of the earliest, if not the earliest harvest on record, forecasts have been unforthcoming this year. The major trade and government bodies that traditionally publish their first estimates in late July or early August have delayed their announcements. Officially, the reason has been the rapidly changing weather conditions, which have made it unusually difficult to assess how severely heat and drought will ultimately affect volumes. But it isn’t hard to read another consideration into these delays – the desire not to add further pressure to an already fragile market.
France: heat, drought and a shrinking vineyard
The French authorities made the unprecedented decision this year not to publish their customary harvest forecast at the beginning of August, waiting instead another month. On September 7, Agreste issued its preliminary report which points to a crop below 34 million hectolitres. Although the estimate will need to be confirmed over the coming weeks, it already indicates a 6% drop on last year and a 17% fall on the 2021-2025 average. The decline looks even starker considering that the five-year average includes three small harvests – 2021, 2024 and 2025. Summer weather had a profound impact on volumes, with drought and successive heatwaves causing sunburn and scorching, defoliation and grape shrivelling. Though water reserves had been significantly replenished over the winter and the spring and vineyards began the ...
