Author: World Bulk Wine Exhibition
Market analyst Rafael del Rey at Del Rey AWM reviews the key trends shaping the bulk wine market in 2025, a year marked by falling global trade but relative resilience for the bulk segment, supported by competitive pricing strategies, shifting flows and growing diversification into new markets.
How would you describe 2025 from a bulk wine trade export perspective?
Unfortunately, world trade just like world consumption in general was bad. Unlike in the past, trade is not only falling by volume, but also by value, which makes it even harder. And everyone is suffering. There might be differences by product type, producers or markets, but figures for all the top 19 exporters decreased, especially in value terms. For bulk, trade evolved slightly more positively than for other categories, but it still declined.
Probably the most important issue for bulk last year was that a very low harvest led to increased prices, and this was particularly true for trade among European producers. The surprising thing is that, despite the higher prices, some markets performed relatively well, particularly Spanish sales to Germany, which took away some of Italy’s business. So the bulk trade was not as bad as other categories, but it was influenced by negative trends within the wine trade as a whole.
Aside from Spain, were there any other bright spots?
One trend I’m following very closely is sales to Africa. It is of course a very limited market for wines in general and for bulk wine, but some African countries like Ghana, Morocco and particularly the Ivory Coast are increasing their bulk imports quite significantly.
Another bright spot is New Zealand, which is performing better than other competitors. New Zealand seems to be shipping some wine directly to final destinations, particularly the United Kingdom and the United States, instead of passing through Australia as it used to, which is probably why figures for bulk exports out of Australia are particularly bad. New Zealand is obviously taking advantage of the global trend in favour of white wines. However, their increase in sales is combined with a relative decline in average prices.
It’s very interesting to see how, in challenging times, different producers are using pricing policies to maintain market share. Last year, for instance, France seems to have made a great effort to reduce its prices in order to maintain or even increase market shares, at least in volume. And they did very well in improving their competitiveness.
Your 2025 bulk wine report details the decline in volume sales of boxed wines since the pandemic and a concurrent, and significant rise in prices. Are the two correlated?
It’s always difficult to infer the reasons behind the numbers. Bag-in-boxes did perform very well during the pandemic. It is quite a limited market, with final destinations primarily in Northern Europe – Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and the United Kingdom. Their current decline very much depends on what happens in the Scandinavian countries, but it might also be influenced by lower harvests and the consequential increase in prices in producer countries like Spain, France and Italy.
There’s also the drinking less but better trend. However, if you look at how successful they have been in countries like France – where a large part of domestic consumption is boxed wine – that success might be replicated in other markets, like Africa. I’m relatively optimistic about the category.
Spain’s bulk wine exports performed well last year, despite their increase in price. What is your explanation for this?
Spain is still probably the most competitive country in the world of wine and for bulk. Spain’s performance is very much dependent on the harvest, but aside from this, I think we can expect to see some significant changes in the future in its approach to the bulk wine market. Spanish bulk exports are very much concentrated in four markets – France, Italy, Germany and Portugal – which to a large extent probably use Spanish wine for blending with domestic wine to decrease their own prices or supplement their distribution capacity.
This is very convenient for our clients but having close to 80% of bulk exports sent to four markets is risky. Hence the need for diversification – which is already happening – and improvements in average prices; the two are interdependent. Selling cheap wine to France for blending to cover low market segments obviously does not hit the same price points as shipping bulk to the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States or China. So Spain is looking for new, higher-value markets and this approach will emerge even more clearly in the future.
Concentration in the Spanish wine industry is certainly enhancing its competitiveness…
There was the very specific example recently where Virgen de las Vinas merged with two other co-operatives in the same region, which makes sense. Sometimes it’s difficult to comprehend the scale of some wineries: in good years, when the harvest is high, some co-operatives in La Mancha produce as much wine as the entire Rioja region. That can be in excess of 3 million hectolitres.
Other co-operatives in the same region can make 1 million hectolitres, or more. If they continue to improve their professionalisation, their commercial capabilities and their understanding of key market trends, their development in the future could be impressive. They already have the size and provided they can improve their commercial skills, they will secure higher market shares and improved price points. So the potential for these companies is immense.
Within the EU, varietal wines are outperforming other categories. Is this a fundamental trend where the trade is moving away from generic bulk wines?
This is definitely true of Spain, but not so clear in the case of France and Italy, where the bulk category relies a lot on PDO and PGI wines. For Spain, varietal wines are part of the transformation I mentioned: if you’re aiming for new clients and higher values in international markets, varietal wines will probably encourage those clients to pay more. You need to change the way you produce and sell your wine. These companies are realising that if you swap your basic wine for Verdejo or Chardonnay or Malbec or Cabernet Sauvignon, you find new clients at better prices. And it’s fairly easy for them to move towards these in-demand varieties: they have very significant acreage at their disposal and can be very agile at transitioning to cater to new demand.
Are the current issues with logistics, costs and also the longer term sustainability agenda likely to lead to a shift in bulk trade flows?
It’s not easy to say. If you take the particular case of the United Kingdom, which is the largest bulk wine market by value, they bring in bulk wines long-distance because they have very good bottling facilities and distribution capacities for both the domestic market and re-exports.
The UK makes a very strong case in terms of prices and sustainability, but the question is, why don’t other countries like the US or Canada follow the same pattern? It would be reasonable to expect this to happen in the future, but so far, what is extremely clear for the UK is not as clear for other countries. For the few companies that do this in the US, it’s actually a great business, so why aren’t other companies doing the same? In any country where distribution capacity is higher than production capacity, this should be happening.
How do you see the way forward in 2026?
It’s difficult to say. We only have numbers for January and February and so we have the whole year ahead of us. But production actually declined, which tends to push prices up. On the demand side, things don’t seem to be better than in 2025.
Consumption is not growing so neither is international trade. We do not see any particular market where there could be significant growth and so the general international context is still very bad. There is uncertainty, tariffs, movements in international exchange rates, projected inflation depending on how the war in Iran evolves… So for 2026, it’ll probably be more of the same. The challenges make things tougher for everyone, but the more competitive businesses show that they have the ability to improve sales.
Even in difficult times, there are opportunities. If you’re able to diversify your client base, concentrate supplies, improve your commercial capabilities and adapt to new trends, there is every probability that you will improve sales. Looking back at Spain again, Castilla-La Mancha is doing very well, so is Valencia, which is finding markets in Africa. They’re unlocking outlets for grape must, even in Muslim countries. Sometimes a negative context can be an incentive for improvement, and this is certainly what we’re seeing.
The trend for low and no-alcohol wines, cocktails, white wines and sweeter wines offers great opportunities for many producers who can adapt very quickly to market needs. This is already happening in central regions of Spain – their ability to pivot and be proactive explains why they are doing well. Regions that can adjust quickly and easily to new market trends probably have a better future than those where traditions make it harder for them to change their habits.
