Global Bulk Wine Market 2025: Between tight supply and shifting tastes
As 2025 reaches its midpoint, the global bulk wine and spirits trade is moving through one of its most complex transitions in decades. Supply patterns are diverging sharply between hemispheres, with consumer behaviour shifting faster than producers can adapt and the economics of wine being rewritten by inflation and tariffs, as well as changing consumer tastes.
The latest Ciatti Global Market Report reveals a fragmented bulk wine sector that is recalibrating, amid regional imbalances, evolving consumption trends and tariff risks. Adaptation and agility are key for both buyers and sellers.
Structural slowdown in demand
Across North America and Europe, retail wine sales remain flat or declining — a trend now that began four years ago. This stagnation is forcing distributors and brand owners to rationalise their portfolios and, in some cases, to surrender shelf space to rival categories such as ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails, beer and low- or no-alcohol beverages. Younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, are less emotionally attached to wine culture. For them, drinks are about refreshment and occasion, not heritage.
The Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) estimates that global wine consumption in 2024 was 22 million hectolitres lower than in 2019, the equivalent of half of Italy’s annual crush. Yet within that decline, the mix of demand is changing: white, rosé and lighter styles are gaining share, while high-alcohol reds lose ground.
The UK’s new alcohol-duty regime — rewarding wines under 11% ABV — has amplified this shift, accelerating interest in low- and noalcohol products.
This evolution is more than a fad; it is reshaping sourcing strategies and pricing models across the bulk wine industry. Buyers no longer build inventory for speculative growth. They buy “just in time,” securing flexible volumes that match current retail needs.
“Spirits could soon overtake wine in total volume, driven by cocktail culture and the premiumisation of dark spirits. This shift is significant for the bulk trade: neutral alcohol, fortified bases, and spirit-adjacent wines can be alternative outlets for surplus wine.”
Photo 2 : (c) Adobe Stock
Southern Hemisphere: A tale of contrasts
The 2025 harvests south of the equator reveal contrasting fortunes.
Chili
Chile, hit by a crop 25% below average, faces tight supplies and high prices. Domestic bottlers and longstanding international clients were first in line to secure supplies, leaving little room for new entries. Generic and varietal whites are particularly scarce.
Argentina
Argentina sits on the opposite side of the equation. With a near-average crop of 1.98 million metric tonnes and an estimated carryover of 630 million litres, the country offers globally competitive pricing, notably for generic reds and whites. The liberalisation of the peso has stabilised export operations, while inquiries for low-alcohol Malbecs and rosés — driven by Scandinavian and UK buyers — signal adaptation to new market trends.
« Les spiritueux pourraient bientôt dépasser le vin en volume total, portés par la culture cocktail et la premiumisation des alcools bruns. Ce changement est majeur pour le vrac : alcool neutre, bases fortifiées et vins orientés spiritueux deviennent des débouchés alternatifs pour les excédents. »
South Africa
In South Africa, the 2025 vintage came in 11% larger than the previous year, and of excellent quality. With no carryover stock, all supply is from the new crop, ensuring consistency but limiting volume flexibility. The rand remains weak against the euro and pound, keeping South African wines attractively priced for Europe despite the tariff uncertainty clouding U.S. trade.
Australia / New Zealand
Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand illustrate the divergence within Oceania. Australia’s bulk market is quiet, abundant in entry-level whites but subdued for reds. Treasury Wine Estates and the newly formed Vinarchy (merger of Accolade Wines and Pernod Ricard’s local units) are restructuring toward premium and sparkling segments. New Zealand, by contrast, reports another very large harvest — so large that some fruit went unpicked. With stocks from 2023–24 still heavy, prices are softening, creating tactical buying opportunities.
Photo 3 : Noorbohandelen shop in Torvehallerne market hall. Denmark’s first special shop for fine spirits in bulk (c) Adobe Stock
Northern Hemisphere: stability and a note of caution
In Europe and North America, the bulk market shows signs of stabilisation, though at subdued levels.
France
France’s southern regions carry heavy inventories despite a 17% smaller 2024 crop, keeping prices negotiable and often below those of Spain or Italy. Buyers ready to load before the next harvest can secure excellent long-term value. The Cognac area, hit by declining brandy exports to China and the U.S., is repositioning part of its white-grape production toward generic white wine and grape-juice concentrate.
Spain
Spain anticipates an average-to-large 2025 harvest following a wet winter and mild spring. With inventories about 10% below the five-year mean, the recent modest softening in prices may be short-lived. Domestic demand remains slow, but the export loading pace is improving.
Italy
In Italy, exporters are struggling with the 10% U.S. import tariff and a weaker dollar. Bottlings of Prosecco and Pinot Grigio fell 6% in May as U.S. shipments slowed. Still, prices have remained stable, and white-wine stocks are limited heading into harvest. Drought concerns in Puglia and Sicily add to the uncertainty.
California
California tells a similar story of caution. The notional price floor of $2.00 per gallon has softened as harvest approaches, bringing most bulk transactions close to “California-appellation” levels. For international buyers, this means access to good-quality wines — especially coastal lots — at globally competitive prices. Multi-year supply contracts are now common, reflecting both buyer caution and supplier need for stability.
Strategic recalibration, Spirits crosswinds
As wineries battle soft demand, the spirits sector is seizing momentum.
Global data from the World Spirits Alliance suggests spirits could soon overtake wine in total volume, driven by cocktail culture and the premiumisation of dark spirits.
This shift is significant for the bulk trade: neutral alcohol, fortified bases, and spirit-adjacent wines (like vermouth or aromatised blends) are gaining attention as alternative outlets for surplus wine.
In the wine segment itself, competition is intensifying for the “light-and-bright” consumer. Producers are experimenting with blends under 10.5% ABV, organic labeling and innovative packaging such as kegs and slim cans.
The convergence of wine and spirits — through hybrids, flavoured bases or co-branding — is blurring boundaries that once defined the category.
Outlook: a new, uneasy balance
If 2024 was the year of retrenchment, 2025 is the year of recalibration. Supply and demand are finding a new, uneasy balance. The price-quality ratio for bulk wine is arguably the most favourable in a decade, yet global sentiment remains cautious. Inflation may be easing, but its after-effects still shape discretionary spending.
For now, the bulk wine and spirits market stands at a crossroads:
• Structural oversupply in some regions, scarcity in others.
• Rising consumer interest in low-alcohol and innovative formats.
• Persistent geopolitical and tariff risks.
Those who navigate this landscape with agility — leveraging multi-year deals, diversifying portfolios and a
ligning with new consumption patterns — will turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage. The rest risk being left with full tanks and thin order books.
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