{"id":46436,"date":"2026-10-06T18:15:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T16:15:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/?p=46436"},"modified":"2026-10-07T14:03:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T12:03:37","slug":"a-tougher-year-for-bulk-wine-but-pockets-of-growth-emerge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/bulk\/a-tougher-year-for-bulk-wine-but-pockets-of-growth-emerge\/","title":{"rendered":"A tougher year for bulk wine, but pockets of growth emerge"},"content":{"rendered":"

Author: <\/strong>Sharon Nagel<\/p>\n

Global bulk wine shipments experienced double-digit declines in volume and value during the first half of 2026, hit by falling consumption, geopolitical disruptions and shifting trade flows. Yet behind the headline figures lie a number of unexpected developments, as Rafael del Rey explains in this interview based on his latest report. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The latest data for H1 2026 shows a sharp contraction in the global bulk wine trade.
\nHow severe is this downturn compared to the rest of the wine industry? <\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

According to th<\/span>e data,<\/span> bulk wine has been hit harder than<\/span> any other categor<\/span>y<\/span>, and despite its traditional resilience, it has not<\/span> escape<\/span>d<\/span> the <\/span>broader<\/span> decline<\/span> affecting the wine sector<\/span>.<\/span>
\nT<\/span><\/strong>wo main factors<\/strong> explain <\/span>the<\/span> contraction during the first half of the year.<\/span> The first is the sharp<\/span> reduction <\/span>in<\/span> trade<\/span> between<\/span> producer<\/span> countrie<\/span>s<\/span>, which accounts for a <\/span>significant<\/span> share of the decline<\/span>.<\/span> This is <\/span>especially important<\/span> for Spain<\/span>,<\/span> whose exports to<\/span> both<\/span> Italy and France <\/span>fell substantially<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spain’s bulk export<\/span>s <\/span>are <\/span>heavily<\/span> dependent on four <\/strong><\/span>key <\/span>markets<\/span>: <\/span><\/strong>France, Italy, Germany and Portugal<\/strong>. <\/span>When demand weakens in one or two of these destinations<\/span>, <\/span>the impact on Spanish shipments is immediate<\/span>. <\/span>Both Italy and<\/span> France <\/span>currently hold relatively<\/span> high<\/span> inventories<\/span> as<\/span> production <\/span>continues to outpace<\/span> sales<\/span>,<\/span> reducing their need for imported<\/span> wine<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In<\/span> Italy, <\/span>demand can fluctuate dramatically from<\/span> one year <\/span>to the next<\/span>, while<\/span> France<\/span> tends to be more stable. E<\/span>ven <\/span>during periods of<\/span> crisis and <\/span>distillation<\/span>, it continues to import<\/span> around 3 million hectolit<\/span>re<\/span>s of Spanish wine<\/span> annually<\/span>. <\/span>B<\/span>ulk wine shipments to <\/span>end<\/span> markets<\/span> also faced several headwinds during<\/span> H1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trade<\/span> from Canada to the <\/span>United States<\/span> declined amid<\/span> ongoing<\/span> commercial tension<\/span>s<\/span>.<\/span> New Zealand<\/span>\u2019s exports also fell<\/span>, p<\/span>articularly in value<\/span> terms, as producers prioritised<\/span> volumes<\/span> over prices<\/span>. <\/span>Likewise,<\/span> Chile <\/span>recorded a sharp drop in<\/span> bulk exports<\/span>, <\/span>especially<\/span> to Germany, the United States<\/span> and<\/span> China. <\/span>Part of this decline<\/span> was <\/span>offset<\/span> by<\/span> stronger<\/span> shipments<\/span> to Spain<\/span>,<\/span> which <\/span>was dealing with<\/span> a<\/span> particularly<\/span> small harvest.<\/span><\/p>\n

Subscribe now to access the full report and gain exclusive industry insights<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Did any of the data surprise you? <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

The increase in bulk imports into Denmark<\/strong> was<\/span> certainly unexpected<\/span>. In the 12 months to June 2026, <\/span>Denmark<\/span> imported <\/span>193 million litres of wine<\/span> across all<\/span> categories<\/span> and export<\/span>ed<\/span> 44.4 million. <\/span>Interestingly, while <\/span>55% of its total<\/span> wine exports are in <\/span>BIBs, <\/span>only 7.7% of <\/span>its<\/span> imports <\/span>arrive<\/span> in this format. <\/span>By contrast<\/span>,<\/span> 38%<\/span> of total Danish wine imports<\/span>, equivalent to <\/span>74 million<\/span> litres<\/span>, <\/span>are<\/span> in bulk<\/span>. This suggests that <\/span>Denmark <\/span>is <\/span>acting as a packaging<\/strong><\/span> and re-export <\/span>hub<\/span><\/strong>, <\/span>processing a significant share of its bulk wine imports before shipping them on to neighbouring markets, principally<\/span> Sweden, Germany and Norway<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Read the report<\/span><\/a>: by Del Rey AWM<\/span><\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Is the overall trend a temporary cyclical drop due to recent harvests, or part of a longer structural decline? <\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

I <\/span>would view the current downturn primarily<\/span> as a cyclical <\/span>rather than a structural issue<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span> The wine sector is undoubtedly facing<\/span> a<\/span> range of <\/span>long-term<\/span> challenges<\/span>, including <\/span>declining consumption<\/span> in many markets. However, trade is also being affected by significant fluctuations<\/span> in production volumes<\/span>, often driven by <\/span>weather<\/span>-related factors. These supply shocks tend to have a greater impact on bulk wine than on bottled wine because the bulk market is particularly sensitive to price movements.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

While such disruptions are generally temporary<\/span>, their effect on trade can be<\/span> immediate<\/span>. <\/span>When production <\/span>falls and<\/span> prices rise<\/span>, buyers become more cautious. If inventories are already sufficient and customers have limited purchasing needs, <\/span>the impact on sales can be dramatic, <\/span>as we have seen<\/span> this year.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One country that stands out this year for volume and value gains is South Africa. Do you have an explanation for this? <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

I have not <\/span>looked closely enough at the data to identify a <\/span>definitive explanation<\/span>.<\/span> However, <\/span>South Africa<\/span>\u2019s two <\/span>largest<\/span> bulk wine <\/span>markets <\/span>are the United Kingdom and Germany<\/strong><\/span>, <\/span>and<\/span> both posted strong growth<\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A<\/span><\/span>t the same time, <\/span>Chilean <\/span>bulk wine <\/span>exports to Germany <\/span>fell<\/span> sharply<\/span>, suggesting that<\/span> some degree of <\/span>substitution <\/span>occurred<\/span>, <\/span>whether <\/span>because of<\/span> pric<\/span>ing, availability or<\/span> buyer-supplier<\/span> relations<\/span>hips<\/span>. <\/span>Ultimately, a great deal of bulk wine trade is shaped by the specific<\/span> relationships between sellers and buyers<\/span>, which can have a significant impact on sourcing decisions<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Here is the report<\/a><\/span> prepared by Del Rey AWM<\/span><\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

The US harvest is expected to be relatively short this year and yet there was a sharp decline in bulk wine imports. Can you explain this?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

There are<\/span> two <\/span>clear <\/span>factors affecting the US<\/span> bulk wine market<\/span>. <\/span>The first is the continued<\/span> decline in wine consumption<\/span>, <\/span>which is impacting<\/span> both domestic<\/span> and <\/span>overseas<\/span> producers<\/span> alike<\/span>.<\/span> The second <\/span>consists <\/span>of<\/span> what are<\/span> hopefully more temporary <\/span>factors<\/span>, <\/span>notably<\/span> tariffs<\/span> and broader trade tensions<\/span>. <\/span>These have had a<\/span> marked impact<\/span> on<\/span> trade flows<\/span> between the <\/span>United States<\/span> and Canada. <\/span>A<\/span> substantial volume of<\/span> bulk <\/span>wine enters the US<\/span> from Canada at <\/span>exceptionally<\/span> low prices<\/span>, <\/span>sometimes as little<\/span> as<\/span> 25 cents per lit<\/span>re<\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Importantly,<\/span> these <\/span>are<\/span> probably<\/span> not<\/span> Canadian-produced wines. <\/span>What is striking is that<\/span> these <\/span>volumes<\/span> have <\/span>not been <\/span>replaced by<\/span> shipments<\/span> from <\/span>other <\/span>origins,<\/span> suggest<\/span>ing<\/span> that <\/span>they<\/span> serve <\/span>a market <\/span>segment that<\/span> cannot<\/span> easily <\/span>be <\/span>sourced elsewhere<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Cellar Credit: Unsplash<\/p>\n

Are there emerging markets that bulk wine exporters should be focusing on more to offset declines in traditional markets?<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

In Spain<\/span>\u2019s case, as<\/span> the <\/span>world\u2019s <\/span>largest bulk <\/span>wine <\/span>exporter, <\/span>two markets that stand out are C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire <\/span>and Morocco. <\/span>Both<\/span> have become <\/span>major<\/span> importers of Spanish bulk<\/span> wine<\/span>.<\/span> That said, it is<\/span> still <\/span>to<\/span>o<\/span> early to <\/span>know<\/span> whether <\/span>this <\/span>signals<\/span> a <\/span>lasting<\/span> trend or <\/span>a<\/span> temporary <\/span>surge driven by specific market conditions<\/span>.<\/span> The key question is whether demand remains consistent<\/span> over a longer period<\/span>. If it does, the implications<\/span> for Spain <\/span>could be <\/span>substantial<\/span>.<\/span> Last year,<\/span> C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire<\/span> became<\/span> the fourth largest <\/span>destination<\/span> for Spanish <\/span>bulk wine<\/span> export<\/span>s<\/span>, and it ranks third in 2026<\/span>.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Review the study<\/span><\/a>: by Del Rey AWM
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

The report highlights that bag-in-boxes generally fared better than bulk wines. Should suppliers be focusing more on the category to improve price points? <\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

T<\/span>his <\/span>is <\/span>something I’ve been <\/span>advocating<\/span> for many years, <\/span>particularly <\/span>among<\/span> Spanish exporters<\/span>.<\/span> Bag<\/span>-in-box <\/span>can<\/span> certainly <\/span>provide<\/span> a small<\/span> but <\/span>meaningful<\/span> alternative <\/span>outlet for<\/span> some bulk wines because <\/span>it<\/span> serves<\/span> a different<\/span> and generally more stable <\/span>market<\/span> at better prices<\/span>.<\/span> It <\/span>offers producers an opportunity to diversify their<\/span> product <\/span>mix<\/span>, <\/span>increase<\/span> average <\/span>selling <\/span>prices and<\/span>, potentially, improve <\/span>profitability, especially <\/span>in<\/span> countries <\/span>that traditionally sell bulk at<\/span> very low<\/span> prices<\/span>. <\/span>That said<\/span>, the scale <\/span>of the category <\/span>is <\/span>fundamentally<\/span> different <\/span>from that of<\/span> bulk wine. It<\/span> remains<\/span> a much smaller market and <\/span>is heavily<\/span> concentrated <\/span>in<\/span> Scandinavia.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Some countries have performed particularly<\/span> well <\/span>in this segment.\u00a0<\/span> France<\/span>, for <\/span>example<\/span>, <\/span>achieves an<\/span> average <\/span>export <\/span>price of <\/span>\u20ac<\/span>3<\/span>.<\/span>35 per <\/span>litre<\/span> for bag-in-box wine<\/span>, which <\/span>is <\/span>remarkably<\/span> high and <\/span>rose<\/span> 8% <\/span>during<\/span> the first half of 2026<\/span>.<\/span> For Spain too, <\/span>bag-in-box<\/span> ha<\/span>s<\/span> become <\/span>an attractive complement<\/span> to bulk wine<\/span> exports<\/span>. <\/span>However,<\/span> market <\/span>conditions remain mixed.<\/span><\/p>\n

France and the USA grew sharply, while <\/span>Sweden <\/span>recorded a decline<\/span> this year <\/span>as did Norway, the Netherlands, the UK and<\/span> Germany. <\/span>More broadly<\/span>, <\/span>I<\/span> am<\/span> concerned<\/span> about Germany<\/span>\u2019s outlook<\/span> as a wine<\/span>–<\/span>import<\/span>ing market. The challenges extend beyond the wine sector itself, as the wider<\/span> German economy <\/span>is<\/span> currently under considerable pressure<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past 10 years, new bulk supplier countries, many from Eastern Europe, have entered the market. How do you explain this?<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

It<\/span> i<\/span>s not <\/span>always <\/span>easy to <\/span>identify<\/span> the <\/span>precise drivers<\/span> behind <\/span>these trends<\/span>, but <\/span>the newer supplier countries<\/span> are facing the same challenging market conditions as everyone else<\/span>. M<\/span>any <\/span>wine<\/span>–<\/span>produc<\/span>ing nations <\/span>are increasingly looking <\/span>to<\/span> international markets<\/span>, not <\/span>only<\/span> for<\/span> bottle<\/span>d<\/span> wine but also for bul<\/span>k<\/span> wine, as they seek additional outlets for their production<\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

However, competition in the bulk segment is extremely intense<\/span>. <\/span>The<\/span> stock levels<\/span> held by the<\/span> three <\/span>major <\/span>producer countries<\/span>, <\/span>France, Italy and Spain<\/span>,<\/span> are<\/span> creating unusual market dynamics and putting significant pressure on prices. This may help explain developments that would have seemed unlikely in the past, such as <\/span>French bulk wine being exported <\/span>to<\/span> Spain at <\/span>highly<\/span> competitive prices<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historically,<\/span> France <\/span>had never<\/span> compete<\/span>d<\/span> with Spain on price<\/span>. The most plausible <\/span>explanation for <\/span>this reversal<\/span> is the <\/span>large volume<\/span> of wine <\/span>stocks that producers are holding. In some cases, the priority has become moving wine out of storage,<\/span> even if that means accepting very low prices<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Find out<\/a><\/span> about the report prepared by Del Rey AWM<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Are there any bright spots looking ahead?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

M<\/span>uch<\/span> will <\/span>depend on the size of <\/span>this year\u2019s<\/span> harvest<\/span> and <\/span>whether<\/span> major producer<\/span>s <\/span>need to <\/span>compensate for <\/span>supply<\/span> shortfalls<\/span>. The<\/span> market <\/span>has also been<\/span> affected <\/span>by <\/span>geopolitical <\/span>disruptions<\/span>. <\/span>US t<\/span>ariffs were <\/span>clearly<\/span> detrimental<\/span>, but the uncertainty <\/span>surrounding trade <\/span>policy may have even more harmful than the <\/span>tariffs <\/span>themselves<\/span>. <\/span>Looking ahead, <\/span>t<\/span>he <\/span>key<\/span> question<\/span> remains<\/span> consumption. Could <\/span>demand<\/span> stabilise in 2026?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Health<\/span> and wellness <\/span>concerns <\/span>continue to influence consumers across<\/span> demographic<\/span> groups<\/span>, <\/span>while the lingering effects of<\/span> post-<\/span>pandemic<\/span> inflation<\/span> are still weighing on purchasing decisions. This makes the outlook more difficult to assess with confidence. <\/span>S<\/span>ome indicators<\/span> for 2026 <\/span>appear less negative than in <\/span>the <\/span>previous year, but at this stage, I<\/span> think <\/span>that reflects more<\/span> wishful thinking than <\/span>evidence<\/span>. <\/span>The data does not yet provide a strong basis for<\/span> optimism. <\/span>That said, there<\/span> are some green shoots<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Certain Africa<\/span>n markets continue to show potential<\/span>, <\/span>while<\/span> white wine, no-<\/span>and-<\/span>low <\/span>alcohol products<\/span> and wine-based cocktails <\/span>are offering encouraging signs. The challenge is that these developments remain limited in scale and are not yet strong enough to offset the broader pressures facing the wine industry.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Any final thoughts? <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

I would keep a close eye on the smaller importing countries. Trade flows can sometimes prove short-lived, but they can also reveal important new opportunities. Take the Ivory Coast, for example.<\/p>\n

Last year it became Spain\u2019s fourth largest bulk wine market. I can\u2019t say what happened to all that wine, but it certainly challenged the assumption that Spain relies on four traditional markets.<\/p>\n

Although imports have fallen this year, it will be interesting to see whether developments in countries such as Morocco, Croatia or even Togo prove to be lasting trends. Some of the most encouraging opportunities may ultimately emerge from these less traditional destinations.<\/p>\n

\"Cover<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Author: Sharon Nagel Global bulk wine shipments experienced double-digit declines in volume and value during the first half of 2026, hit by falling consumption, geopolitical disruptions and shifting trade flows. Yet behind the headline figures lie a (\u2026)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":46453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[365],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bulk","format-article"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA tougher year for bulk wine, but pockets of growth emerge – Vinexposium<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/bulk\/a-tougher-year-for-bulk-wine-but-pockets-of-growth-emerge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A tougher year for bulk wine, but pockets of growth emerge – Vinexposium\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Author: Sharon Nagel Global bulk wine shipments experienced double-digit declines in volume and value during the first half of 2026, hit by falling consumption, geopolitical disruptions and shifting trade flows. 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