{"id":45471,"date":"2026-04-22T18:18:54","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T16:18:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/?p=45471"},"modified":"2026-09-02T11:05:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T09:05:24","slug":"the-great-rebalancing-act-the-southern-hemisphere-2026-vintage-takes-shape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/bulk\/the-great-rebalancing-act-the-southern-hemisphere-2026-vintage-takes-shape\/","title":{"rendered":"The great rebalancing act: the Southern Hemisphere 2026 vintage takes shape"},"content":{"rendered":"

Author: <\/strong>World Bulk Wine Exhibition<\/p>\n

As harvesting wraps up across the Southern Hemisphere\u2019s key wine producing region<\/strong>s, a clearer picture is emerging of both quality potential and volume expectations. The vintage is also shedding light on the challenges facing bulk wine marketers navigating a market still marked by cautious demand and structural imbalance.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt feels as though the wine industry \u2013 much like many consumers globally \u2013 is on its own course of Ozempic or similar GLP-1 medicines. We\u2019re shedding volumes, though of a different kind, as we attempt to correct years of a build-up that\u2019s left us a little out of shape<\/em>\u201d, said Wine Marlborough\u2019s general manager Marcus Pickens<\/strong> in the latest issue of Winepress. He added: \u201cThe imbalance is obvious, and there\u2019s a shared understanding that we must return to equilibrium as quickly as possible<\/em>\u201d. Although his comments refer specifically to the New Zealand wine sector, they resonate far more broadly, reflecting vintage strategies adopted across many Southern Hemisphere producer countries. This \u2018right-sizing\u2019 of the Southern Hemisphere crop suggests a strategic shift away from the volume-driven dynamics of the last decade as producers prioritise inventory health in the absence of increased market shares.<\/p>\n

Unprecedented challenges in Australia <\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

That rebalancing is also evident across the Tasman Sea. Although official estimates have yet to be released, a March report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences\u00a0(ABARES)<\/strong> forecast a 20% decline in Australia\u2019s 2026 crop, estimating the harvest at around 1.25 million tonnes. This figure sits significantly below the ten-year average of approximately 1.7 million tonnes, signalling a painful but necessary correction to the oversupply issues that have plagued the sector\u2019s commercial viability in recent years. The report points to rising input, water and fuel costs combined with falling grape prices as key pressures shaping production decisions this season. Speaking to local media, Lee McLean, chief executive of Australia Grape and Wine, said: \u201cGrape growers and winemakers are facing the most challenging set of commercial conditions they have ever faced in Australia<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

While volumes are down, many producers are reporting strong quality potential for the Australian vintage. \u201c2026 is an outstanding vintage that provides an interesting contrast to 2025\u2026<\/em> Vineyard canopies were well balanced heading into Christmas, driven by strong soil moisture at budburst, followed by a dry December<\/em>\u201d, comments Nigel Westblade, chief winemaker at Peter Lehmann Wines which sources fruit from across the sub-regions of the Barossa Valley. \u201cA series of heat events, combined with minimal rainfall through January and February, kept the vines working hard. In early March, several tropical systems tracked south, delivering welcome rainfall that refreshed the canopies and supported them through to the end of the season. The extended ripening period, together with lower crop levels, has enabled full tannin ripeness to be achieved at relatively modest sugar levels. Tannin structure is notably more refined this year, with a few exceptions, providing winemakers with excellent blending opportunities once allocation begins<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

More crop capping in New Zealand<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Neighbouring New Zealand is also describing the 2026 vintage as \u201cstunning<\/em>\u201d. Drew Ellis, chief winemaker at the Marlborough Grape Growers Cooperative (MGGC), reported that \u201cdense, rich flavours in the vineyard have carried through into ferment, giving bright Sauvignon character with plenty of depth and weight<\/em>\u201d. From a volume perspective, the cooperative\u2019s CEO Mike Brown said its harvest is down 38% year on year<\/strong>: \u201cMost vineyards were set to yield at cap \u2013 13.5 tonnes\/hectare, a good ratio for flavour concentration and achieving optimal ripeness<\/em>\u201d. The majority of MGGC\u2019s production is allocated to its multi-year customers and the cooperative has continued to expand its branded presence with ranges such as Marlborough Heartland recently securing listings in Norway and Singapore. \u201cThe other significant wine project for us is the Art of the Growers Marlborough Sauvignon bag-in-box project we have in Sweden, which has been selling very well after the launch in Systembolaget back in December<\/em>\u201d, Brown added. New Zealand Winegrowers is expected to release the first in a series of national production updates later this month.<\/p>\n

New market inroads for Argentina <\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

In Argentina, the Instituto Nacional de Vitivinicultura (INV) has already issued its production estimate, showing a 10-12% decline on last year\u2019s 10.7 million hectolitres, though with differing outcomes for the two leading producer provinces. While Mendoza is expecting a 15% drop, San Juan is forecast to see production rise by 10%. \u201cVineyards enjoyed better conditions than in 2024 and 2025<\/em>\u201d, explains Juan Manuel Palomo, manager of the Argentine Bulk Wine Chamber. \u201cIt was not so hot in January and February and this promoted better conditions for colour and sugar, potentially allowing us to have lower alcohol wines. We are expecting a great vintage, similar to 2021 or 2015<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Strong quality expectations combined with improved availability and a significant drop in prices this year \u2013 ranging from 20 to 30%<\/strong> \u2013 are fuelling hopes of renewed international market momentum among Argentine bulk suppliers, particularly as the country prepares to host Vinexpo Explorer Mendoza 2026 from June 8-10. \u201cThe local market used to consume 75 to 80% of Argentine wines annually \u2013 now that has dropped to around 50%<\/em>\u201d, explains industry veteran Jos\u00e9 Bartolucci, president of the Argentine Bulk Wine Chamber. \u201cWe now have more stock, better prices and availabilities of naturally organic wines that align with global demand for sustainability<\/em>\u201d. The pivot is a timely move as many leading buyers tighten their ESG requirements.<\/p>\n

First quarter export figures confirm that Argentina is making renewed inroads into the global bulk wine market, although the Argentine Bulk Wine Chamber cautions that the headline growth rates should be viewed in context.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2020, we used to export up to 100 million litres of generic wine. In 2025, we exported just 5-7 million litres, which is why there were big increases<\/em>\u201d, explains Palomo. Bulk shipments nevertheless remained the main drivers of overall export growth, rising 54.6% year-on-year in the first quarter and lifting bulk\u2019s share to 34% of total exports compared with 25% in previous years. \u201cArgentina only represents 1.5% of global bulk wine exports, compared with say 9-10% for Chile or 10-15% for other competitors<\/em>\u201d, adds Bartolucci, while forecasting strong opportunities for Argentine suppliers this year. \u201cArgentina has improved its competitiveness compared with other Southern Hemisphere suppliers, particularly for generic segments, notably whites: we are combining the quality of the 2026 vintage with competitive pricing and the ability to supply at scale<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"A Credit: a person who is doing grape harvest<\/p>\n

Higher prices in Chile <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

In neighbouring Chile, suppliers are unlikely to match many producer countries on pricing this year. Citing a disconnect between growers\u2019 expectations and the commercial realities faced by many wineries, Marco Adam of Ciatti points to elevated grape prices as a key constraint on export competitiveness. \u201cWe\u2019re now competing again with South Africa \u2013 where suppliers hadn\u2019t been competing with us for three years \u2013 and we have no chance of competing with Australia or even New Zealand. With expensive grapes, we will not be able to match prices in any of these three countries<\/em>\u201d. Significant vineyard uprootings in recent years \u2013 estimated by Adam at between 25 and 30% of total acreage \u2013 coupled with more positive sales trends at the time grape prices were set have nevertheless raised growers\u2019 expectations. \u201cIt\u2019s good for growers, who have finally seen some relief after five difficult years of selling their grapes at very low prices, and stocks at the end of December were also lower than expected. But globally, sales remain challenging: they are slower than normal everywhere, and Chile seems to be less fashionable than it was 10 or 15 years ago<\/em>\u201d. The dilemma for Chile in 2026 is one of positioning: Chilean suppliers find themselves caught between rising domestic production costs and a global bulk market that has yet to fully embrace Chile\u2019s move toward premiumisation.<\/p>\n

In volume terms, however, prospects appear more positive. Following a favourable summer, with good water availability for irrigation, crop expectations have been revised upwards. \u201cIn our last report, I said 850 million litres, but today I would probably say between 900 and 950 million, but still below 1 billion litres<\/em>\u201d, says Adam. Although \u201chorrendous rain<\/em>\u201d affected picking in mid-March, the early pace of harvest meant that a large proportion of fruit was already safely in wineries. \u201cApart from a couple of small wineries, everyone handled the situation very well<\/em>\u201d. While the short-term outlook remains challenging, Adam is more optimistic about the longer term: \u201cI don\u2019t think the decrease in consumption will continue<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Good quality and quantity in South Africa<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

The coming year, however, is expected to be anything but plain sailing. \u201c2026 is going to be tough on wine sales, pricing and movement especially<\/em>\u201d, confirms Magnus Kriel, winemaker and general manager at Merwida in the Breede River Valley, South Africa. After enjoying something of a respite in 2024 and 2025, which saw a slowdown in vine pulls and implementation of new planting programmes, the South African wine industry is once again under strain. \u201cWe had quite a good 2025 vintage and the market was good. But then towards the end of 2025, everything came under pressure overnight. The wine is still moving, but it\u2019s slower<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

With harvesting at Merwida spanning a total 12 weeks, the new vintage is almost ready to enter the market. \u201cI\u2019m very happy with the quality and quantity, but<\/em> we\u2019re all under pressure. There\u2019s going to be a drop in price – if there’s too much supply and little demand then prices need to come down so that we will do. Then hopefully shelf prices will follow and we can get wine moving again and bring the market back into balance. That’s the whole issue \u2013 there are still too many grapes<\/em>\u201d. Although Kriel believes \u201cit will take more than a year to recover equilibrium between sales, marketing and production<\/em>\u201d, Merwida\u2019s focus remains firmly on the future.<\/p>\n

New plantings \u2013 dominated by Pinot Grigio, Sauvignon and Chardonnay \u2013 began coming on stream this year, taking the winery\u2019s vineyard holdings up to nearly 1,000 hectares, and aligning the varietal range with the most in-demand styles. Nationwide, South Africa Wine forecasts a larger crop this year with \u201cquality indicators showing strong potential across several cultivars<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Throughout the Southern Hemisphere, the 2026 harvest is shaping up as one of contrasts: generally encouraging quality and, in several countries once again, deliberately reduced production, yet still unfolding against a backdrop of fragile demand and price pressure. As the \u2018Ozempic effect\u2019 continues to lean the industry out, for bulk suppliers the year ahead is likely to remain defined less by what is in the vineyards than by how quickly global markets can absorb what is already in tank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Author: World Bulk Wine Exhibition As harvesting wraps up across the Southern Hemisphere\u2019s key wine producing regions, a clearer picture is emerging of both quality potential and volume expectations. The vintage is also shedding light on the (\u2026)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":45611,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[365],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bulk","format-article"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe great rebalancing act: the Southern Hemisphere 2026 vintage takes shape – Vinexposium<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/bulk\/the-great-rebalancing-act-the-southern-hemisphere-2026-vintage-takes-shape\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The great rebalancing act: the Southern Hemisphere 2026 vintage takes shape – Vinexposium\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Author: World Bulk Wine Exhibition As harvesting wraps up across the Southern Hemisphere\u2019s key wine producing regions, a clearer picture is emerging of both quality potential and volume expectations. 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