{"id":43702,"date":"2026-05-11T08:32:41","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T06:32:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/?p=43702"},"modified":"2026-05-22T11:13:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T09:13:09","slug":"asia-china-2026-data-to-support-smarter-trade-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/economy\/asia-china-2026-data-to-support-smarter-trade-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia & China 2026 – Data to support smarter trade decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Author :<\/strong> Rob Temple – Sinowine<\/p>\n

A<\/span>n\u00a0<\/span>overview of key Asian markets \u2013 showing the latest key economic indicators, import data and summary of issues facing China, the largest market in Asia, today.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Reading wine\u00a0and other alcoholic drinks\u00a0consumption trends\u00a0in Asia\u00a0is challenging at the best of times.\u00a0No such undertaking\u00a0should\u00a0be made\u00a0today\u00a0without considering\u00a0the\u00a0economic challenges the region faces. This is particularly true in China, which has the additional complication of having import data skewed by opportunistic importers and distributors\u00a0that have overstocked the market.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s worth taking a look at Asia\u2019s biggest\u00a0economy\u00a0and the impact of current consumer confidence there before viewing the broader region.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bottled wine imports to China peaked\u00a0between 2015-2017 at\u00a0around\u00a0687ML\u00a0per year\u00a0but have since\u00a0seen a dramatic\u00a0decline.\u00a0Locally made wine\u00a0production\u00a0has also seen a rapid fall.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2024\u00a0wine\u00a0imports were down to\u00a0281ML. This was\u00a0up from 2023\u00a0–\u00a0buoyed by a\u00a0sudden inflow\u00a0of\u00a0Australian wines\u00a0newly released from punitive tariffs.\u00a0But imports continued their downward trajectory in 2025 falling to 209ML. All categories fell\u00a0except\u00a0Sparkling and White wines, however, values dropped 10%\u00a0year-on-year\u00a0vs 26% for volume.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But imports\u00a0do not equate to consumption. Indeed, the extraordinary growth in wine imports that\u00a0started\u00a0in China\u00a015 years ago\u00a0was\u00a0driven\u00a0not by consumers so much as\u00a0by importers and distributors,\u00a0who saw wine as a more profitable alternative to the dwindling margins\u00a0offered by\u00a0beer and spirits. Records show that most of the newcomers to wine trading only ordered once or twice before they found a saturated market without sufficient consumption,\u00a0or,\u00a0that they lacked the understanding of how to manage a sensitive product.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Wine was also\u00a0considered to be the\u00a0new sophisticated\u00a0and prestigious\u00a0way to entertain in business\u00a0and government circles, particularly with premium red wine\u00a0brands. The impact of government curbs on entertaining \u2013 first in 2012 and more recently with even tighter controls in 2025 \u2013 gave a measurement of just how much wine went into this channel\u00a0(beer and spirits categories have also been severely impacted, particularly local baijiu brands that form an essential part of formal entertainment).\u00a0Restaurants are now reeling from the absence of this business and hurrying to convert their private rooms, once filled with hushed, hidden, dinners, to open-plan configurations more popular with regular diners.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Speculative importers and government-related consumption may never\u00a0return\u00a0to the extent they once were. This leaves us with the opportunity to understand who a consumer of wine actually is.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The number of genuine wine consumers in China\u00a0has\u00a0undoubtedly\u00a0grown in recent years.\u00a0A study by YouGov in 2025 measured the number of regular wine consumers\u00a0(those\u00a0who\u00a0drink wine more than once per week)\u00a0to be\u00a0over 20\u00a0million in Guangdong\u00a0province\u00a0alone.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Credit: \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Credit: \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

But consumers today\u00a0appear to be\u00a0buying what they can,\u00a0rather than what they want,\u00a0due to the\u00a0negative\u00a0economic,\u00a0geopolitical and demographic forces at play.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Consumer confidence is low. The Composite Consumer Confidence index<\/strong>\u00a0is\u00a0a monthly consumer survey run by the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Centre (CEMAC) \u2013 an office of the government\u2019s Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). Their 0-200 point scale currently reads 89 \u2013 some way below\u00a0\u2018neutral\u2019 level 100.\u00a0Further evidence of reluctant spending can be seen the levels of savings of disposable income in 2025 \u2013 34%, vs a usual 25% in\u00a0recent\u00a0years.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This\u00a0reluctance to spend becomes\u00a0more obvious when\u00a0looking at current economic indicators.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is said that\u00a0China runs on three engines \u2013 foreign investment, property and infrastructure\u00a0 development and exports. Arguably,\u00a0the first two don\u2019t fire without export trade dollars, but all three are under significant pressure.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s exports to the US, the country\u2019s largest export market,\u00a0was\u00a0worth US$525.7Bn in 2024. This\u00a0declined more than 20% in 2025\u00a0due to US tariffs.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nominal\u00a0GDP\u00a0in China\u00a0is set to fall\u00a0from\u00a0over 27% total growth\u00a0for the five years\u00a0between 2019-2024\u00a0to 20% for the next 5 years.\u00a0Foreign\u00a0Direct Investment (FDI) in 2025 dropped for a third\u00a0year running by 9.5%YOY to US$107Bn \u2013 still sizeable, but the trend shows continuing caution among investors.\u00a0\u00a0Local government debt\u00a0has been\u00a0officially\u00a0published\u00a0at RMB\u00a047.5 trillion\u00a0which is hindering local economic development.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These are\u00a0just\u00a0a few\u00a0of the\u00a0difficult numbers to look at.\u00a0But it is\u00a0declining\u00a0property prices that\u00a0perhaps\u00a0weigh\u00a0most\u00a0heavily\u00a0on the minds\u00a0of consumers in China.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Property makes up\u00a0between 20\u00a0to\u00a030% of\u00a0China\u2019s\u00a0GDP but 70% of personal assets.\u00a090% of\u00a0households\u00a0in\u00a0Chinese\u00a0cities own their homes (vs 65% home ownership in US).\u00a0Up to 20% own more than one.\u00a0Property prices\u00a0have fallen 20-40%\u00a0from the high of 2021\u00a0when government \u201cThree\u00a0Red\u00a0Lines\u201d policy put restrictions on land sales and lending policies\u00a0which\u00a0popped\u00a0a growing bubble in the market.\u00a0UBS forecasts property prices in China will drop by 10% in 2026 and a further 5% in 2027 without strong government intervention.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Between 2008 and 2022 32% of urban residential properties sold in China were for investment purposes.\u00a0\u00a0In 2008 when China launched an economic stimulus package (worth some RMB4 Trillion – 12.5% of GDP at the time) to buffer the impact from the US banking crisis much of it ended up in property purchases (this alone led to a 30% growth in the real estate development in the 2010s).<\/span><\/p>\n

But 32% more units of housing were being built each year than newly formed households.\u00a0It\u2019s no surprise that the government stepped in\u00a0to cool the market in 2021.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With a population forecast to drop by 3.4% in the next 10 years and rising unemployment there is little to suggest property prices will recover\u00a0soon.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This is the first time property owners have seen prices drop and this matters. Without a broadly trusted pension program property for many is a nest egg.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Several initiatives to address the downturn have already been launched by the central government (bond issuances, a \u201c16-point plan\u201d for property, for example).\u00a0Many countries around the World are queuing up to make trade deals with China in the wake of US tariffs.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But such challenging issues will take time to resolve and in the meantime consumers will remain cautious with their spending, particularly on non-essential items.\u00a0This impacts not only local business but also in hotels, bars, restaurants, shops and places of entertainment in Bangkok, Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong and Macau and elsewhere.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the current challenges,\u00a0the long-term prospects for Asia remain strong.\u00a0Again, some of the data does not tell the whole story.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Population<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

T<\/span>he 10-year population forecasts for the key markets in Asia vs the last 10\u00a0<\/span>years<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>show<\/span>\u00a0changing trends.\u00a0<\/span>Despite China\u2019s projected fall in population it\u2019s middle class is set to grow to over 800\u00a0<\/span>million in the next 10 years. \u201cPeak India\u201d population is not likely to\u00a0<\/span>occur\u00a0<\/span>until 2060 (around 1.7 billion<\/span>, according to UN reports<\/span>)<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0and a middle class that will reach 61% of the population by 2047 \u2013 that\u2019s double the current level. South Korea, Thailand and Japan will all see their populations (and critically<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0their middle<\/span>–<\/span>class sectors) shrink over the next 10 years<\/span>. We<\/span>\u00a0a<\/span>re already seeing\u00a0<\/span>older generations in\u00a0<\/span>these markets move to more premium products in the drinks arena<\/span>\u00a0and young consumers looking for lower alcohol \/ \u201cvalue\u201d drinks –\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0a trend likely to continue over the next few years. In total<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0though,\u00a0<\/span>key Asian markets are forecast to add over 250 million people to city populations in the next decade<\/span> as urbanisation grows.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Credit: \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Credit: \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Youth Unemployment<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Much has been written about the habits and concerns of Gen Z group and while there is little doubt their thoughts differ from older generations when it comes to consuming alcohol, affordability must be part of their consideration, particularly those without a job. Unemployment of under-25s in China officially now stands at 16.1%, but those who do have a job may not feel secure in that employment or may have a low starting salary. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Credit : \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

GDP<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Until recently, the IMF forecasted GDP growth to accelerate in the coming years. The threat of long-term high oil prices has forced a rethink. Still, Asia will record higher growth rates than much of the rest of the World.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the World scrambles for trade deals\u00a0with China\u00a0in the face of US tariffs,\u00a0we may\u00a0see\u00a0an improvement\u00a0in current forecasts there. Early signs for 2026 are positive.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s prime minister\u00a0Sanae\u00a0Takaichi\u00a0promises to turn around an ailing economy there\u00a0through\u00a0investments in\u00a0tech industries\u00a0in particular.\u00a0A stubbornly weak Yen is making life hard for importers of foreign\u00a0products, including wine and spirits.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea has a similar plan and is injecting a huge budget into tech to raise its economy. Taiwan is ahead of both in the technology field\u00a0and is on the cusp of\u00a0a\u00a0massive wave of demand for its chips\u00a0that power much of the growing AI industry.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Credit: \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Alcohol Consumption<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

This brings us to the topic of alcohol consumption. Wealthier, urbanised populations enjoying convenient city living and disposable incomes have increasing access to sophisticated retail and F&B outlets.<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0Vietnamese\u00a0are the largest per capita consumers\u00a0of alcohol in Asia today and\u00a0drink three times as much\u00a0as\u00a0they did in 2000.\u00a091% of it is beer, 8% spirits,\u00a0and around 1% wine \u2013 but with urbanisation at 38% this mix is not surprising.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other end of the scale,\u00a0Japan\u2019s aging population (30%\u00a0of Japanese\u00a0are over the age of 65,\u00a0and\u00a0Japan shrinks by 96 people per hour) has already changed its drinking habits to higher average spend and lower\u00a0volume\u00a0consumption.\u00a0Young consumers have not taken up the national drink sake, instead,\u00a0preferring beer and wine, and increasingly, whisky (there are now 500 producers of whisky in Japan). Sake, though, has\u00a0growing\u00a0appeal overseas with export values doubling in the last 5 years to 46BN Yen in 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Credit: \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Wine Imports<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

We have already covered the reasons for China\u2019s sudden spike in imports and recent declines. It is worth noting where wine sits in the alcohol landscape. Around 49% of the alcohol category by value is beer,\u00a0and about the same percentage for spirits (95% of spirits are local baijiu products), leaving around 2% for wine (of which half is bottled locally). As with all markets,\u00a0wine brands struggle to compete with advertising and promotion dollars that beer and spirits brands\u00a0enjoy.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the small market share,\u00a0wine occupies a substantial space in supermarket drinks sections.\u00a0Recently,\u00a0key supermarket operators in China have vastly improved the quality, price,\u00a0and presentation of their wine portfolios. This has led to\u00a0a new level of trust from consumers. \u201cInstant retail\u201d is becoming the norm\u00a0–\u00a0a bottle\u00a0of chilled wine can be delivered to\u00a0a\u00a0home, or, crucially, to a consumer in a restaurant, within 25 minutes. This opens a vast opportunity to wine in the on-trade where outside of tier one cities wine can be hard to find.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Another encouraging observation seen across all channels in China is the uptick in white wine consumption. Consumers of white wines are the most likely to drink on taste (unlike\u00a0for\u00a0red wine,\u00a0which\u00a0may\u00a0be consumed for image or be given as a \u201cpremium\u201d gift). This shows a level of maturity that bodes well for the future of wine.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

India is growing from a small base (less than 1% of total alcohol consumption value) due to the complexities of local supply chains and strong spirits and beer culture. India\u2019s local wine production commands around 70% of the total wine market. Australia currently takes about 40% market share of imports by volume (mostly TWE and AWL and due to the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement) but a new Free Trade Agreement with EU will cut import taxes from 150% to 20-30% for wine (reductions from 150% to 40% for spirits and 110% to 50% for beer) will see a levelling of the playing field.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Cr\u00e9dit : \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Spirits Imports<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Weak consumer sentiment and a challenging tourism industry<\/strong> ha<\/span>ve\u00a0<\/span>dented spirits consumption in Thailand, particularly of premium brands. Strong cocktail growth has been beneficial to\u00a0<\/span>low-priced<\/span>\u00a0and white spirits here and across Asia<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>G<\/span>enerally<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>though,\u00a0<\/span>there are signs of trading up in emerging markets and traditional markets.\u00a0<\/span>Cocktail bars are springing up across China. Bar owners can make up to five times higher margins with spirits-based drinks than with wine. Canned RTD drinks are more convenient for consumers and retailers than standard glass bottles of wine.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Credit : \u00a9Rob Temple – <\/span>Sinowine<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ult<\/span>i<\/span>mately<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0Asia is a\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>region of great diversity.<\/strong> Growing GDP and urbanisation across most of the region will drive consumption<\/span>. Higher\u00a0<\/span>incomes in\u00a0<\/span>expanding<\/span>\u00a0cities will outweigh the shor<\/span>t-<\/span>term economic challenges. It\u2019s not yet possible to be sure how rapidly emerging AI technology will impact Asia (analysts predict mass job displacements and mass job creation<\/span>\u00a0\u2013 either way, an upheaval in job markets seems inevitable<\/span>). Engaging with the consumer in their language, linguistically and culturally, will be as important as ever for brand owners to benefit from this rapidly evolving continent.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

About Rob Temple<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\"Portrait<\/p>\n

Rob Temple <\/strong>has over 30 years of experience in building wines and spirits distribution companies, mostly based in Hong Kong and Greater China. His Hong Kong-based company, Sinowine Ltd. represents premium wines and spirits brands in the Asia markets, working with importers, distributors, retailers, airlines and duty-free operators and offering a range of business development services.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Author : Rob Temple – Sinowine An\u00a0overview of key Asian markets \u2013 showing the latest key economic indicators, import data and summary of issues facing China, the largest market in Asia, today.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Reading wine\u00a0and other alcoholic drinks\u00a0consumption (\u2026)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[359],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","format-article"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAsia & China 2026 - Data to support smarter trade decisions – Vinexposium<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Asia & China 2026 - Data to support smarter trade decisions – Vinexposium\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Author : Rob Temple – Sinowine An\u00a0overview of key Asian markets \u2013 showing the latest key economic indicators, import data and summary of issues facing China, the largest market in Asia, today.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Reading wine\u00a0and other alcoholic drinks\u00a0consumption (\u2026)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/economy\/asia-china-2026-data-to-support-smarter-trade-decisions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Vinexposium\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-11T06:32:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-22T09:13:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Asie-Chine-2026-Des-donnees-pour-etayer-des-decisions-commerciales-plus-eclairees.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"550\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Julien Likiliki\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Julien Likiliki\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/economy\/asia-china-2026-data-to-support-smarter-trade-decisions\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/economy\/asia-china-2026-data-to-support-smarter-trade-decisions\/\",\"name\":\"Asia & China 2026 - 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