{"id":40894,"date":"2025-08-25T17:56:01","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T15:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/?p=40894"},"modified":"2026-01-09T12:10:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T11:10:09","slug":"five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/","title":{"rendered":"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Several financial institutions, including Rabobank and BMO Capital Markets, have recently released reports on the state of the alcohol and wine markets. The most wide-ranging of these, Barclays Investment Bank\u2019s Future of Global Alcohol, was produced for its private clients and is not publicly available. Areni spoke with Laurence Whyatt, a lead author of the report who is also head of European Beverages Equity Research at Barclays. An incisive analyst and communicator, Whyatt outlined five ways that demographics shape global alcohol consumption.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 0.7em; color: #84273b;\">1. Demographics are destiny<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Barclays Bank has been concerned with demographics for a long time, Whyatt said because \u201cthe more people you have, the more potential consumers you have.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>After recognising that demographics were an important driver of the market, Barclays built a database that layered economic and other information on top of UN population data. The result is an alcohol database for every country.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we learned is that the demographic changes were largely explaining the volume changes in alcohol,\u201d he said. After looking at the data, they realised the Chinese market was changing: \u201cWe identified the issues in demographics, particularly in the Chinese market, back in 2023, when we became much more concerned about potential growth.\u201d The reason is that the number of young people has been declining for more than a decade.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe were running some models looking at how that population was going to evolve over the next decade and realised it was going to shrink by nearly a quarter between now and 2035,\u201d Whyatt said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat made us much more concerned about the potential for growth of products like Cognac and even the Scotch Whisky industry.\u201d<br \/>\nConsumption has already begun its downward slide: \u201cChina\u2019s alcohol consumption has actually halved per capita since 2015 in spirits\u2026 Beer consumption is down around 20% since 2013.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-38184 size-full\" title=\"Adobe IStock\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool_2.webp\" alt=\"Plusieurs bonhommes en papier dans plusieurs couleurs.\" width=\"100%\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool_2.webp 900w, https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool_2-300x183.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool_2-768x469.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool_2-200x122.webp 200w, https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool_2-292x178.webp 292w, https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool_2-450x275.webp 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/> @Adobe Stock<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 0.7em; color: #84273b;\">2. One group is the most important<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Demographics are the most important indicator of alcohol consumption, and the proportion of people in the population aged 25-40 is critical, Whyatt said. This group not only predicts total alcohol consumption, but is the group that\u2019s most likely to be working. \u201cWestern Europe is seeing declining per capita consumption,\u201d he said. \u201cYoung people in these countries are declining in number; the birth rate has been falling in a number of these places over the past few decades, and you really need a healthy young population in order to have high alcohol consumption.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 0.7em; color: #84273b;\">3. The outlook for the U.S. remains positive<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe can go back a century to Prohibition and look at how alcohol consumption has changed,\u201d he said. \u201cGenerally speaking, we\u2019ve seen an increase in alcohol over that century.\u201d<br \/>\nThere have been two major times consumption has fallen: the first was after WWII, owing to economic weakness. \u201cThe second time was in the late 1970s, early 1980s, when the U.S. introduced a 21-year-old legal drinking age,\u201d he said. Since then, there has been three decades of growth in per capita consumption, until the pandemic altered things. \u201cOverall alcohol consumption increased in 2020 and 2021 when lockdown started to end, then we started seeing a decline in alcohol purchases.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Young people are also drinking less, with declines in underage consumption and in heavy drinking among young people since 2010. Whyatt notes, however, that stories about young people drinking less have to be treated with caution.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe study that\u2019s often quoted to me is the Gallup study,\u201d he said, noting that Gallup is a very reputable polling company. \u201cPeople look at the stats showing that, say, 18-to-30-year-olds are drinking less, which is true, but only because the 18-to-20-year-olds are drinking less, but the 21-to-30-year-olds are drinking about the same as what they used to drink.\u201d<br \/>\nWhyatt also said that U.S. adults consume the most when they first turn 21, \u201cand that level of consumption stays pretty linear until the age of about 40 to 45.\u201d From then on, consumption begins to decline up to the age of 65. It drops again from age 75.<br \/>\nWhyatt remains positive about the U.S. market because of its continuing economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 0.7em; color: #84273b;\">4. The male-to-female ratio matters<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>One of the biggest predictors of premiumisation in the market is the male to female ratio \u2014 regardless of country, Whyatt said: \u201cIf you have more men than women in any country, you have a higher premium spent in that country.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When Barclays analysts first recognised the pattern, he said they thought that the data was just being skewed by a few countries, \u201cas there are a few that have quite a major difference in male and female populations.\u201d China is one such country, and Indonesia is another. \u201cSo we just excluded those data sets completely \u2014 and got the same results.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not the total number of either men or women in the population that\u2019s important but the ratio.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe first reason we thought of was maybe it\u2019s just the type of alcohol,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is relatively well documented that some of the more premium spirits are drunk by men. Things like Cognac, Single Mark and Scotch Whisky have a very male skew. I guess more entry level or more affordable spirits, things like gin and tequila, skew a bit more female.\u201d Men also drink more than women do, for physiological reasons: Men typically drink three to four times what women drink.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSomewhere like the U.S., where you are seeing an increase in alcohol consumption over the past few decades, the growth is coming from women,\u201d he said. But even so, Whyatt admits those are speculations for this ratio; they don\u2019t know for sure.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 0.7em; color: #84273b;\">5. Where the growth will come<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whyatt says the U.S. is a good market to study, because there is so much publicly available data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When looking at where the 25-to-40-year-olds are clustered, Whyatt says the UK is forecast to decline by a single percent in the next decade. Germany is likely to decline by 11% over the next decade. Spain is falling by 8% and Italy by 6%. France is only declining by 2%, but its growth in that crucial demographic is being held steady by people from cultures that don\u2019t drink alcohol.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cSo we really highlight these parts of the world as quite challenged from a consumption perspective, if we say that the volume growth has to come from the young. Companies are going to be fighting over a much smaller pool of potential customers,\u201d he said, noting that Argentina is a market to keep an eye on.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cArgentina has gone through a profound economic change with Javier Milei becoming leader,\u201d he said. \u201cBut it does have a very strong demography.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The U.S. will continue to grow, as will India, though for spirits consumption. \u201cAs countries get wealthier, the amount of spirits consumed in those countries tends to go up.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the big growth will be found in Africa. \u201cEthiopia and Nigeria are growing by 33% and 34% \u2014 it\u2019s an extraordinary level of growth in the young there,\u201d Whyatt said, noting that he sees those countries as important beer markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cI think for the wine industry it\u2019s going to take a while before we start seeing the levels of consumption of wine commensurate with some European countries or other developed nations, But Africa almost certainly will be a very important area for growth over the next few decades.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #84273b; font-size: 0.7em;\">About Areni Global :<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #171717;\">Areni Global est la principale organisation d\u00e9di\u00e9e aux enjeux strat\u00e9giques du vin haut de gamme. Elle produit \u00e9tudes, rapports de march\u00e9, articles et podcasts, et encourage la collaboration et la croissance durable du secteur.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Several financial institutions, including Rabobank and BMO Capital Markets, have recently released reports on the state of the alcohol and wine markets. The most wide-ranging of these, Barclays Investment Bank\u2019s Future of Global Alcohol, was produced for (\u2026)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":38181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption &#8211; Vinexposium<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption &#8211; Vinexposium\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Several financial institutions, including Rabobank and BMO Capital Markets, have recently released reports on the state of the alcohol and wine markets. The most wide-ranging of these, Barclays Investment Bank\u2019s Future of Global Alcohol, was produced for (\u2026)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Vinexposium\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-25T15:56:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-01-09T11:10:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"550\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Julien Likiliki\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Julien Likiliki\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/\",\"name\":\"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption &#8211; Vinexposium\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-08-25T15:56:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-01-09T11:10:09+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/8a395f58bccb6869e796034aac7d3c2d\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp\",\"width\":900,\"height\":550,\"caption\":\"Pauline Vicard Areni Global\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Vinexposium\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption &#8211; Vinexposium","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption &#8211; Vinexposium","og_description":"Several financial institutions, including Rabobank and BMO Capital Markets, have recently released reports on the state of the alcohol and wine markets. The most wide-ranging of these, Barclays Investment Bank\u2019s Future of Global Alcohol, was produced for (\u2026)","og_url":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/","og_site_name":"Vinexposium","article_published_time":"2025-08-25T15:56:01+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-01-09T11:10:09+00:00","og_image":[{"width":900,"height":550,"url":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"author":"Julien Likiliki","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Julien Likiliki","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/","url":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/","name":"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption &#8211; Vinexposium","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp","datePublished":"2025-08-25T15:56:01+00:00","dateModified":"2026-01-09T11:10:09+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/8a395f58bccb6869e796034aac7d3c2d"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Cinq-facons-dont-la-demographie-influence-la-consommation-dalcool.webp","width":900,"height":550,"caption":"Pauline Vicard Areni Global"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/actus\/industry\/five-ways-demographics-shape-alcohol-consumption\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Five ways demographics shape alcohol consumption"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/","name":"Vinexposium","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40894"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40894\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40903,"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40894\/revisions\/40903"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vinexposium.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}